Timing Your Purchase to the Market Cycle

One problem with attempting to time your purchase to the business cycle is that even experts have problems accurately predicting the future economy. Even when they can, the real estate market does not necessarily move in tandem with the stock market or the economy as a whole.

Part of the reason is interest rates.

When the economy is doing well, interest rates are generally higher. The result is that fewer people can afford houses. When the economy slows down, interest rates fall, the "affordability index" moves up and more people can afford houses.

As you can see, this cycle does not move "in sync" with the rest of the economy. It is also influenced by how many people have jobs, whether they are well-paying jobs, and consumer outlook for the future. All these factors make it difficult to know, in advance, whether the housing market is going to boom or bust.

What makes most sense is the "buy and hold" strategy. Buy a home you expect to remain in for at least seven years or more.

Why You Should Not Wait to Purchase a Home

Even if you could "time the market," that strategy would most benefit first-time buyers.

You see, people who already have a home usually need to sell it in order to come up with the down payment for their next home. Even if they don't, they would have to carry the debt and obligations on two homes at the same time. This can create financial hardship, even when you rent out the previous home. There are maintenance costs, renters don't always make their payments on time, the rent may not cover the mortgage and other costs, and sometimes the property may be vacant.

>So if you are a move-up buyer and want to purchase your next home during a depressed market, you generally have to sell your current home during that same depressed market. If you want to sell during a boom, then you also have to purchase during the same boom.

It tends to equal out.

Finally, suppose you are a first-time buyer and wait think the end of a boom is near? If you guess wrong, are you going to wait...and wait...and wait...till the next depressed market? If so, you could miss out on loads of depreciation...

...and that is assuming you guess right about your market timing. In 1996, when the home market was struggling, who would have predicted what the next seven years would bring?